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Excerpt from Cartel Deception in Nonrenewable Resource Markets
But it seems unlikely that such perfect monitoring is possible in the markets for oil and other nonrenewable resources. It appears difficult enough for any one nation accurately to estimate its own reserves, let alone to police the accuracy of others’ published estimates. Similarly, it is not obvious that any producer can accurately monitor the sales of all others. It might thus be both possible and profitable for individual producers to lie about their reserves or outputs for some finite period of time. If the market proceeds along the Salant equilibrium price path corresponding to the false data, reserves in the hands of all producers at the end of the deception will generally be different than they would have been had all told the truth. Even if all parties insist on careful monitoring after the lie has been revealed, the shift in reserve positions may make the lie profitable.
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